All commercial polls done for public consumption are push polls, designed to shape public opinion, rather than measure it. They only have to be close to right in the last week, because those are the only polls that are measured against reality. The rest of the time they can be whatever the pollsters desire based on what message they want to send.
Private (campaign) polls have a lot more incentive to be correct, because real money is on the line there, as campaigns want to know where to direct their efforts. Yet, even then, like with Hillary in 2016, even internal polls can be skewed based on the campaign believing their own bullshit.
National polls mean nothing as there are 51 separate elections, not one big election, and it's difficult to accurately poll the swing states for a variety of reasons, primarily turnout. Yes, this percentage of likely voters favors Trump over Kamala, but in the end, will they actually vote?
Finally Nate Silver went from being a genius to being a clown over the years, especially since 2016. His models no longer accurately reflect reality because his head is so far up his ass that he can't see the real world anymore.
So, it's a close race. How close? I have no idea. Trump has all the energy, but he did in 2020 too, so that means nothing.
Nate got bored, and has moved on to punditry -- and writing books -- his new one on gambling and risk seems quite good, using statistics and real life experiences as a pro gambler to talk about the mentality of those "On the River," and how risktakers are a different breed, good stuff I think.
"Trump has all the energy" -- just like you say "Everyone hates Kamala". I love your superlatives with everything related to Trump, very Trumpian. I thought Experimentalists were more Poisson, it's the Theoreticians who tend to be binary.
All commercial polls done for public consumption are push polls, designed to shape public opinion, rather than measure it. They only have to be close to right in the last week, because those are the only polls that are measured against reality. The rest of the time they can be whatever the pollsters desire based on what message they want to send.
Private (campaign) polls have a lot more incentive to be correct, because real money is on the line there, as campaigns want to know where to direct their efforts. Yet, even then, like with Hillary in 2016, even internal polls can be skewed based on the campaign believing their own bullshit.
National polls mean nothing as there are 51 separate elections, not one big election, and it's difficult to accurately poll the swing states for a variety of reasons, primarily turnout. Yes, this percentage of likely voters favors Trump over Kamala, but in the end, will they actually vote?
Finally Nate Silver went from being a genius to being a clown over the years, especially since 2016. His models no longer accurately reflect reality because his head is so far up his ass that he can't see the real world anymore.
So, it's a close race. How close? I have no idea. Trump has all the energy, but he did in 2020 too, so that means nothing.
Nate got bored, and has moved on to punditry -- and writing books -- his new one on gambling and risk seems quite good, using statistics and real life experiences as a pro gambler to talk about the mentality of those "On the River," and how risktakers are a different breed, good stuff I think.
"Trump has all the energy" -- just like you say "Everyone hates Kamala". I love your superlatives with everything related to Trump, very Trumpian. I thought Experimentalists were more Poisson, it's the Theoreticians who tend to be binary.